SEC Week 2 Predictions
Week 1 gave us a first set of answers. Week 2 brings the tests that can tell us whether those answers are real. Ohio State visits Texas, Oklahoma travels to Michigan and Tennessee takes a spectacular young offense on the road to Georgia Tech.
The three games that matter
Texas has to finish against the team that has beaten it twice in the moments that mattered. Oklahoma has to prove its offensive control travels against a Michigan defense that still did not allow a touchdown in Week 1. Tennessee has to take Faizon Brandon, coming off a five-touchdown debut, into his first road game.
Texas 52.9% · 26.6–25.5
Oklahoma 50.5% · 23.6–23.4
Tennessee 78.4% · 34.2–21.7
Oklahoma is a slight model favorite, while the market moved toward Oklahoma by roughly six points.
Ohio State at Texas
For Texas, the useful word is finish. The Longhorns outgained Ohio State 336–203 last season, outrushed the Buckeyes 166–77 and still lost 14–7 after going 1-for-5 on fourth down and 0-for-2 in the red zone. Texas’ Week 1 third-down performance matters because Arch Manning was 7-for-8 for 98 yards and three touchdowns on third down. Pick: Texas over Ohio State.
Oklahoma at Michigan
Oklahoma scored on its first eight possessions against UTEP. Michigan possessed the ball for only 19:52 against Western Michigan, ran 48 plays, turned it over three times and needed a last-second Hail Mary to survive 13–12. The model sees a near coin flip, but the market repriced the game to Oklahoma by roughly six. John Mateer’s legs and Oklahoma’s passing-down profile give the Sooners answers. Pick: Oklahoma by six.
Tennessee at Georgia Tech
Faizon Brandon threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns, added 68 rushing yards and two more scores, while Tennessee produced 638 total yards. Georgia Tech can make this uncomfortable by staying on schedule and limiting possessions, but Tennessee owns the broad edges in talent, efficiency, passing downs and explosive ability. Pick: Tennessee over Georgia Tech, with the Vols favored by 12.5.
Around the SEC
Missouri at Kansas is the most interesting Friday rivalry game, with Missouri carrying a 68.2% model win probability. Texas A&M is a 90% favorite over Arizona State, Alabama carries a 91.6% probability at Kentucky, and Mississippi State at Minnesota is the board’s true remaining coin flip at 53.4% for the Bulldogs. Utah has an 85% model win probability over Arkansas.
The full Week 2 board is locked with Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and Auburn as the SEC winners, with Utah over Arkansas.
What Week 2 will tell us
Can Texas finish against Ohio State? Is the market right to reprice Oklahoma so aggressively? Can Georgia Tech turn its favorable scheme wrinkles into extra possessions against Tennessee? Week 1 gave us efficiency. Week 2 tells us whether it survives when a real opponent can punish the weaknesses.