SEC Week 4 Predictions: The Full Pick Board
Texas at Tennessee, Ole Miss at Florida, Oklahoma at Georgia and every SEC Week 4 pick, with the model probabilities, projected scores and biggest market disagreements.
Week 4 is the first week this season with a complete SEC board that combines three standalone matchup previews with six additional games. The goal is simple: put every pick on the record before kickoff, explain what matters, and separate straight-up opinions from meaningful against-the-spread positions.
The three featured matchups
Texas at Tennessee
Tennessee’s run game and favorable functional matchup make the Vols a legitimate threat in Knoxville, but Texas has already shown it can recover from a disastrous start against elite competition. The model gives Texas a 67.3% win probability and projects the Longhorns to win 31–24. Pick: Texas.
Oklahoma at Georgia
Oklahoma’s defense can keep this uncomfortable early, but the Sooners have scored only 24 total points over their last two games while Georgia is averaging 59. The model gives Georgia an 86.5% win probability and projects a 33–15 Bulldogs win. Pick: Georgia, with a model lean toward Georgia at the listed 14-point spread.
Ole Miss at Florida
Florida has a strong schematic argument, especially with Jaden Ball’s rushing production, but Ole Miss showed against LSU that it can finish a one-score game under pressure. The model gives Ole Miss a 60% win probability and projects a 32–28 Rebels win. Pick: Ole Miss, including Ole Miss plus the points if Florida remains around -3.5.
The rest of the SEC board
South Alabama at Kentucky
Kentucky must avoid an emotional hangover after its upset at Texas A&M. South Alabama is 2–1 and can run the ball, but Kentucky has the better defense and more talent. The model gives Kentucky a 67.7% win probability and projects 31–23. Pick: Kentucky.
Vanderbilt at Auburn
The model sees this as nearly even, with Vanderbilt at 51% and a projected score of Vanderbilt 28, Auburn 27.5. The market snapshot had Auburn -9.5, but the personal straight-up pick is Auburn while the spread position is Vanderbilt. Pick: Auburn; Vanderbilt to cover.
South Carolina at Alabama
South Carolina’s offense has enough quarterback talent to make plays, but Alabama’s response after falling behind Florida State was significant. The model gives Alabama better than an 80% win probability and projects a 34–20 win. Pick: Alabama, including Alabama at -11.5 if that number remains available.
Texas A&M at LSU
Both teams are coming off SEC losses, and both have offensive questions. LSU’s defense receives the stronger matchup adjustment, but the model still sees a close game: LSU by roughly 27–24 with a 58% win probability. Pick: LSU; Texas A&M to cover around +8.5.
Missouri at Mississippi State
This is the least confident straight-up pick on the board. The model separates the teams by less than half a point, gives Mississippi State a 51% win probability and projects 26.6–26.2. Pick: Mississippi State, including Mississippi State at -3.
Tulsa at Arkansas
Tulsa is 3–0 and has already beaten Oklahoma State, but Arkansas gets a strong defensive schematic fit and needs a stabilizing home performance. The model gives Arkansas a 68.5% win probability and projects a 31–24 win. Pick: Arkansas.
The complete Week 4 pick board
- Texas over Tennessee
- Kentucky over South Alabama
- Georgia over Oklahoma
- Ole Miss over Florida
- Auburn over Vanderbilt
- Alabama over South Carolina
- LSU over Texas A&M
- Mississippi State over Missouri
- Arkansas over Tulsa
Where the model disagrees most with the market
The largest gaps are Vanderbilt at Auburn, Texas A&M at LSU and Ole Miss at Florida. Missouri at Mississippi State is also effectively a coin flip in the model despite the market giving the Bulldogs a small home-field edge. Georgia and Alabama are both model favorites, but their model edges are smaller than the respective market numbers suggest.
These are market snapshots, not fixed lines. The board is locked before kickoff, and the Week 4 reaction will revisit what the model got right, what it missed and which teams changed the conference picture.