SEC Week 5 Predictions: Alabama at Mississippi State and the Full Board
Alabama visits undefeated Mississippi State, Florida travels to Missouri and Tennessee tries to respond against Auburn. Here is every Week 5 SEC pick, projected score and model angle.
Week 5 is not the deepest SEC slate, but it has a clear main event and several useful tests. Alabama and Mississippi State are both undefeated. Florida has to show that its explosive win over Ole Miss can travel. Tennessee has to clean up after Texas put 10 sacks on the board. The full board is locked before kickoff.
Alabama at Mississippi State
Mississippi State is no longer just a fun September story. The Bulldogs are 4–0, 2–0 in SEC play, and have already won at Minnesota, at South Carolina and against ranked Missouri. Camaro Taylor has 1,192 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Fluff Bothwell has 402 rushing yards, and Anthony Evans has 408 receiving yards.
Alabama is also 4–0 after Keelan Russell threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns against South Carolina. The matchup question is whether Alabama’s front can disrupt Mississippi State’s early-down run game and force Taylor into predictable passing situations. The model gives Alabama a 74.5% win probability and projects a 34–24 Tide victory. Pick: Alabama.
Florida at Missouri
Florida is 4–0 and ranked eighth after running for 302 yards against Ole Miss. Missouri is a different test, with a disruptive pass rusher and a defense that could force the Gators to win differently than they have through four games.
Florida’s identity is clear, but the question is whether that rushing attack can remain efficient against a stronger opponent. The model gives Florida a 60% win probability on the road and sees a close game. Pick: Florida, 28–25.
Auburn at Tennessee
Tennessee’s defense kept the Vols in the game against Texas, even while the offense struggled and allowed 10 sacks. Auburn is not Texas, but Byron Brown can move the ball and can also give the game away if Tennessee’s pass rush creates late pressure.
The model gives Tennessee a 71% win probability and projects the Vols by nearly nine points. The market snapshot had Tennessee -7. Pick: Tennessee, 30–21.
The rest of the Week 5 board
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Georgia forced four turnovers and held Oklahoma to two of 14 on third down. The model gives Georgia an 88.6% win probability and projects the Bulldogs by about 19 points. Pick: Georgia, 38–19.
Kentucky at South Carolina
Kentucky just ran for 390 yards, while South Carolina produced 419 total yards despite losing at Alabama. The model gives South Carolina a 64.8% win probability and projects a 30–24 Gamecocks win. Pick: South Carolina.
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Arkansas looked much better against Tulsa, but Texas A&M’s baseline talent remains significantly higher despite the Aggies’ offensive collapse at LSU. The model gives Texas A&M a 79.4% win probability and projects a 34–21 win. Pick: Texas A&M.
McNeese at LSU
This game is outside the FBS-versus-FBS production model, so SEC Recap is not assigning a model probability or projected score. The straight-up pick is still clear. Pick: LSU.
The complete Week 5 pick board
- Alabama over Mississippi State, 34–24
- Georgia over Vanderbilt, 38–19
- Tennessee over Auburn, 30–21
- Florida over Missouri, 28–25
- South Carolina over Kentucky, 30–24
- Texas A&M over Arkansas, 34–21
- LSU over McNeese
The biggest model-market differences
The largest gap on the Sunday snapshot was Alabama at Mississippi State. Georgia at Vanderbilt was next, with the market making Georgia a larger favorite than the model. South Carolina over Kentucky and Florida over Missouri were smaller model edges, while Auburn at Tennessee was close to the market number.
The model numbers are frozen for the board. Betting lines can move throughout the week, but the published SEC Precap™ picks remain on record as posted.